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Estimación de una Ecuación de Euler del Consumo Per Cápita para México: 1980-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Rodríguez Arana

    (Universidad Iberoamericana, Ciudad de México)

Abstract

Este trabajo estima una ecuación de Euler de consumo per cápita para México con datos trimestrales de 1980 a 2010. La estimación supone una función de utilidad isoelástica y se lleva a cabo por el método generalizado de momentos (MGM). Los resultados son muy acordes con lo que la teoría pronostica, aunque los residuales de la ecuación original no son totalmente aleatorios, lo que pone en tela de juicio la existencia de expectativas racionales. Una estimación adicional añadiendo niveles de consumo pasados (ver por ejemplo Fuhrer y Rudebusch (2004)) limpia los residuales y sigue siendo acorde con la ecuación de Euler como resultado de largo plazo. Un análisis complementariomuestra que en México es posible rechazar cointegración entre el consumo per cápita y el PIB per cápita, lo que es compatible con la existencia de una ecuación de Euler para el consumo.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2012. "Estimación de una Ecuación de Euler del Consumo Per Cápita para México: 1980-2010," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 7(1), pages 27-47, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:7:y:2012:i:1:p:27-47
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    File URL: http://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/25/40
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumo; Ecuación de Euler; Ingreso permanente;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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