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Dependencia Condicional entre los Mercados Bursátiles de México y Estados Unidos

Author

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  • Arturo Lorenzo-Valdés

    (Universidad de las Américas Puebla)

Abstract

In this paper the conditional dependence of stock market in Mexico and the United States is studied. Symmetric Joe-Clayton copula is used and conditional probabilities of increases (decreases) in Mexico stock index when there are increases (decreases) in the U.S. stock index are estimated. For the marginal distributions, AR-TGARCH and AR-EGARCH models with a standardized Student's t distribution for innovations are proposed. Empirical results suggest that there is a high degree of conditional dependence in the tails, presenting higher volatility on the upper (right) tail throughout the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Arturo Lorenzo-Valdés, 2016. "Dependencia Condicional entre los Mercados Bursátiles de México y Estados Unidos," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 31(1), pages 3-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:31:y:2016:i:1:p:3-14
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Copulas; TGARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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