Estimation of Drought Index over the Northern Coast of Egypt

The precipitation deficit from normal has significant impacts on water resources all over the globe. This deficiency of precipitation will lead to drought over different areas for specific time. Therefore, assessing the severity of drought period and magnitude will considered as one of the very important tool for sustainable agriculture. The main objective of this research is to investigate the performance of Precipitation Deviation Percentage (PDP) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), to monitor and assessing the meteorological drought. As well as, to estimate the drought index over the northern coast of Egypt, to assist stakeholders and decision-makers. Calculations of PDP and SPI (at short or long time scales 3 and 6 or 12 months respectively) as drought indices have based on the CRU TS3.23 monthly average precipitation data, through the period from 1951 to 2014 over nine stations at the northern coast of Egypt. Results of both PDP and SPI during the selected period revealed that, small or large amounts of rainfall were not associated with very low or high SPI values, but the PDP was very sensitive to any decrease or increase in rainfall. Despite, the PDP and SPI can perform as good indicators for meteorological drought monitor and assessment over the north coast of Egypt. Further analysis of PDP and SPI values have revealed drought occurrence started nearly 2005 and reached to extremely dry in 2010. As well as, both PDP and SPI trends have decreased as lower than zero with time. Hence, the northern coast of Egypt has exposed to drought during the last five years of the studying period. Based on these results, it has recommended using both PDP and SPI operationally as warning system to monitor different drought conditions across the north coat of Egypt. This system will support in minimizing the negative impacts of drought on different sectors, mainly agriculture sustainability.