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Türkiye’de Konjonktürel Etkilerden Arındırılmış Cari İşlemler Dengesi

  • Hakan KARA

    (TCMB)

  • Çağrı SARIKAYA

    (TCMB)

Türkiye’de son yıllarda cari işlemler açığının yüksek seviyelerde dalgalı bir seyir izlemesi ve buna paralel olarak gündeme gelen kırılganlıklar, dış dengeyi makroekonomik istikrarı sağlamaya yönelik politikaların merkezine oturtmaktadır. Cari işlemler dengesine dair politika tasarımının sağlıklı bir şekilde yapılabilmesi için öncelikle herhangi bir dönemde cari açığın ne kadarının konjonktürel (çevrimsel) ne kadarının yapısal unsurlara atfedilebileceği sorusunun yanıtlanması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışma basit bir yöntemle iç talep, dış talep ve dış ticaret fiyatlarındaki konjonktürel etkileri arındırarak cari işlemler dengesinin uzun vadeli ana eğilimini tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çeşitli varsayımlar altında yapılan hesaplamalar, son 10 yıllık dönemde cari işlemler dengesinde yapısal (konjonktürel etkilerle açıklanamayan) bir bozulmaya işaret etmektedir. Yakın dönemde ise cari işlemler açığının milli gelire oranı yüzde 5 civarında istikrarlı bir ana eğilim sergilemektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, cari denge dinamiklerinin ve buna yönelik uygulanan politikaların anlaşılmasına katkıda bulunmaktadır.

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Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 28 (2013)
Issue (Month): 332 ()
Pages: 09-32

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:28:y:2013:i:332:p:09-32
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  18. Okan Eren, 2013. "Pazar Buyuklugu ve Pazar Payi Bilesenleri Kullanilarak Turkiye’nin Ihracat Buyumesi ve Dis Ticaret Acigi Projeksiyonlari : 2013-2030," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1305, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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