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An assessment of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s survey of expectations


  • Ece ORAL

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

  • Hülya SAYGILI

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

  • Mesut SAYGILI

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

  • S. Özge TUNCEL

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)


After the financial and currency crisis in 2001, a new monetary policy era had begun in Turkey leading to a policy switch from fixed exchange rate to inflation targeting regime. This new monetary policy regime necessitates managing inflation expectations to curtail inertia in inflation dynamics. In line with these developments, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey decided to conduct a survey for measuring inflation expectations, as they comprise an important part of the transmission channel of monetary policy. Accumulated survey data enable us a comprehensive assessment of medium-term inflation expectations. The aim of this paper is to discuss the properties of the survey and investigate 12-month ahead inflation expectations. A detailed evaluation of inflation expectations in terms of changes in their distribution and forecasting performance is given at aggregate and sectoral levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Ece ORAL & Hülya SAYGILI & Mesut SAYGILI & S. Özge TUNCEL, 2009. "An assessment of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s survey of expectations," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(276), pages 23-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:24:y:2009:i:276:p:23-51

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    2. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    3. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    4. Özge AKINCI & Burcu GÜRCİHAN & Refet GÜRKAYNAK & Özgür ÖZEL, 2007. "Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri için getiri eğrisi tahmini," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 22(252), pages 5-25.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:tcb:cebare:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:31-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31–38.

    More about this item


    Inflation Expectations; Survey Data; Monetary Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation


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