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Sustainability and financing of current account deficits: The Turkish case

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  • Süleyman Tuluğ OK

    (Bilkent Üniversitesi)

Abstract

Economic theory and empirical research show that either foreign direct investment or external debt, or a combination of the two, can be used to finance a growing current account deficit in the medium to long run. If both financing methods fail, the best solution is to reduce the deficit itself by depreciating the local currency either by market forces or by policy intervention. Sustainability of the Turkish current account deficit was assessed in time-series data over 33 years. Results show that sustainable current account deficits were recorded during periods of economic stability, whereas periods of economic instability coincided with unsustainable deficits. This paper develops a model with policy implications for calculating a sustainable level of current account deficit and verifies its validity by applying it to the Turkish setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Süleyman Tuluğ OK, 2008. "Sustainability and financing of current account deficits: The Turkish case," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 23(272), pages 7-24.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:272:p:7-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    2. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    3. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    4. Özge AKINCI & Burcu GÜRCİHAN & Refet GÜRKAYNAK & Özgür ÖZEL, 2007. "Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri için getiri eğrisi tahmini," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, pages 5-25.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account deficit; foreign direct investment; hot money; financing of current account deficits; sustainability of current account deficits;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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