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İkiz açıklar hipotezi: Türkiye analizi


  • A. Öznur ÜMİT

    (Ondokuz Mayıs Üniversitesi)

  • Kemal YILDIRIM

    (Anadolu Üniversitesi)


Bu çalışmanın amacı İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olup olmadığı sorusunun cevabını aramak ve bütçe açıkları ile cari işlem açıkları arasındaki -varsa- ilişkinin yapısını incelemektir. İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin geçerliliğini araştırmak amacıyla 1987:01–2005:04 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler kullanılmış ve bütçe açıkları ile cari işlem açıkları arasındaki nedenselliğin varlığını ve yönünü test etmek için vektör otoregresyon (VAR) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Test sonuçları İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermiştir. Uygulama sonuçlarına göre bütçe açıkları faiz oranları ve döviz kurları aracılığı ile cari işlem açıklarına yol açmaktadır.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Öznur ÜMİT & Kemal YILDIRIM, 2008. "İkiz açıklar hipotezi: Türkiye analizi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 23(267), pages 116-132.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:267:p:116-132

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    bütçe açığı; cari işlemler açığı; ikiz açıklar hipotezi; vektör otoregresyon analizi;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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