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Forecasting in health-service provision


  • Fergus BOLGER

    (Bilkent Üniversitesi)

  • Dilek ÖNKAL

    (Bilkent Üniversitesi)

  • M. Sinan GÖNÜL

    (Tobb Ekonomi Ve Teknoloji Üniversitesi)


Good decisions and policy depend on a reasonable degree of foresight; this in turn relies on a forecasting process that is well-integrated with the strategic management of an organization. There is, however, very little research into the forecast process within organizations generally, or health-services in particular. N.......Noting this gap, a framework for health-services forecasting research is proposed. Further, results from a study conducted within this framework are conveyed. This study reports a questionnaire on a group of administrators in Turkish health- service sector involving 39 chiefs of staff, 38 hospital directors, 37 head nurses, 12 managers from in-patient medical institutions, 55 administrators from the Ministry of Health, and 56 administrators from provincial health directorates. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics and nominal logistic regressions. The results revealed that as forecast providers, the most importance is given to the credibility of technique and ease in using available data in selecting a forecasting technique. As forecast users, the highest importance is given to forecast provider’s credibility and expected predictive accuracy. Interval predictions were perceived to be the most useful prediction format, while point forecasts are considered the least useful. These assessments persist, irrespective of their experience, position, and background.

Suggested Citation

  • Fergus BOLGER & Dilek ÖNKAL & M. Sinan GÖNÜL, 2008. "Forecasting in health-service provision," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 23(265), pages 5-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:265:p:5-16

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    More about this item


    forecasting; health-service provision; judgment and decision making; communication;

    JEL classification:

    • M10 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General


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