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Türkiye’nin Dış Borçları Özel Yatırımları Uzun Dönemde Olumsuz Yönde Etkiliyor Mu?


  • Erdal KARAGÖL

    (Balıkesir Üniversitesi)


Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin dış borç ödemeleri ve kamu yatırımlarının özel yatırımları uzun dönemde nasıl etkilediğini araştırmaktadır. Kointegrasyon metodu kullanılarak özel yatırımlar ile dış borç ödemeleri ve kamu yatırımları arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bununla beraber, impulse response fonksiyonu kullanılarak şokların etkisi araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar; Türkiye’nin dış borç ödemelerinin, uzun dönemde özel yatırımlarını negatif yönde etkilediğini göstermiştir (debt overhang). Ayrıca, özel yatırımlar ile kamu yatırımları arasında negatif bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Kamu yatırımları artıkça özel yatırımların crowding-out olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdal KARAGÖL, 2005. "Türkiye’nin Dış Borçları Özel Yatırımları Uzun Dönemde Olumsuz Yönde Etkiliyor Mu?," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 20(228), pages 125-130.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:20:y:2005:i:228:p:125-130

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Oscar Centralogo & Mario Damill & Roberto Frenkel & Juan P. Jimenez, 1997. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en América Latina: El caso argentino," Research Department Publications 3014, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
    5. Frenkel, Roberto, 2003. "Globalization and financial crises in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    özel yatırımlar; dış borçlar ve kointegrasyon; türkiye;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy


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