A Methodology to Improve the Decision-Making Process: Integration of System Dynamics Models and Decision Theory With TRIZ

The modeling approach is relevant to support the decision-making process. Modeling requires a structured approach, knowledge and specific analytical skills in order to obtain an appropriate representation of the situation under analysis. Nevertheless, creating a good representation of the reality is not a simple task; it is not trivial to choose an analysis approach since most of decision-makers could have partial lacks information during the different stages of the modeling process. Considering this, we propose a methodology to support the decision-making process by using a novel structured integration of different quantitative and qualitative tools, such as system dynamics, decision theory and the theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ), in order to simplify the modeling process in complex analysis. A case study attempts to illustrate the application of the methodology in a real problem situation, related to the analysis of disasters within the boundaries of Valparaíso City, specifically fires.