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A Neural Network Model for Predicting Cost of Pre-Fabricated Housing

Author

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  • Mladen Vukomanović

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Mirsad Kararić

    (Libra Projekt, Ltd., Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Mladen Radujković

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

Low performance of the construction industry stresses the need for improving current practices - especially in regard to cost. In this study the authors have found a critical set of variables for predicting total cost of pre-fabricated housing. A neural network model was applied on more than 30 projects. The model relies on 17 critical cost prediction variables. Verification, on 28 buildings, showed that: 85.7% of predicted values had the deviation lower 5%, while 10.7% had the deviation lower than 10%, in relation to the actual cost. After validating the model on new data the performances were as follows: 83.8% of predicted values had the deviation lower 5%, while 12.9% had the deviation lower than 10%. Thus, using this model, construction companies can influence project performance during project early phases, and acquire more competitive position on the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Mladen Vukomanović & Mirsad Kararić & Mladen Radujković, 2014. "A Neural Network Model for Predicting Cost of Pre-Fabricated Housing," International Journal of Information Technology Project Management (IJITPM), IGI Global, vol. 5(1), pages 14-23, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:igg:jitpm0:v:5:y:2014:i:1:p:14-23
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