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Analysis of Energy System in Sweden Based on Time series Forecasting and Regression Analysis

Author

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  • Seyed Mohsen Hosseini

    (University of Tehran, Department of Renewable Energies and Environmental Engineering, Tehran, Iran)

  • Alireza Aslani

    (University of Tehran, Department of Renewable Energies and Environmental Engineering, Tehran, Iran)

  • Marja Naaranoja

    (University of Vaasa, Faculty of Technology, Vaasa, Finland)

  • Hamed Hafeznia

    (University of Tehran, Department of Renewable Energies and Environmental Engineering, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

Sweden has had a long-term political commitment to renewable energy development up until the oil crisis of the early 1970s. Oil accounted for more than 75 percent of Swedish energy supplies in 1970. Today, the figure is around 20 percent. In this study, Swedish energy system and the trend of energy consumption are analyzed to forecast total energy consumption and energy consumption in the sectors, industrial and residential, for the next ten years, therefore, most effective factors influencing energy consumption are identified in each sector. The present paper gives the additive Holt-Winter method and regression analysis, and the model selection is based on the square root of the average squared error. The results show that energy use in Swedish energy system, especially in the residential sector, will decrease between 2014 and 2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Seyed Mohsen Hosseini & Alireza Aslani & Marja Naaranoja & Hamed Hafeznia, 2017. "Analysis of Energy System in Sweden Based on Time series Forecasting and Regression Analysis," International Journal of Energy Optimization and Engineering (IJEOE), IGI Global, vol. 6(3), pages 97-113, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:igg:jeoe00:v:6:y:2017:i:3:p:97-113
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