Testing the Relevance of Daily MODIS Data to Monitor Mediterranean Shrubland Canopy Water Content with Temporal Cross-Correlation Analyses

Drought alert systems for forest fire prevention often rely on vegetation water content (VWC) monitoring which is a key parameter in forest fire hazard. In southern France, VWC is now monitored through regular field surveys. Thanks to the theoretical sensitivity of shortwave infrared reflectance to VWC, MODIS satellite data are potentially able to monitor VWC depending on plant species VWC magnitude. In this paper, a specific statistical approach based on temporal cross-correlations is developed in order to test the correlation between two MODIS water indices and VWC measurements coming from field surveys. This test assesses the ability of daily MODIS data to monitor Mediterranean shrubland canopy water content and detect any delay effect between MODIS and field survey temporal series. Statistical tests are carried out for 29 sites containing 18 dominant shrubland Mediterranean species. 67% and 54% of significant correlation were found using respectively the NDII and NDWI indices from MODIS data. Correlation were found low with a dominant negative delay effect, i.e., with a MODIS signal that reacts a few days after the field VWC. Test results show that, even if deeper pre-processing of MODIS data may be required, site soil, site vegetation cover, and heterogeneity at MODIS pixel scale, as well as species VWC sensitivity make correlation between field VWC and MODIS water indices non univoque and highly variable. Many obstacles are still to overcome, for an accurate monitoring of Mediterranean shrubland canopy water content using MODIS daily data.