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Transitory Productivity Shocks and Long-Run Output

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  • Galor, Oded
  • Tsiddon, Daniel

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of transitory productivity shocks on long-run output. The study demonstrates that, despite it transitory nature, an adverse productivity shock may result in lower long-run output. A fall in productivity reduces output and savings and, consequently, the interest rate increases and investment in human capital falls. Although productivity returns to its initial level, a sufficiently large reduction in investment pushes the economy to a new stationary equilibrium with lower output. A redistribution of income from consumers to savers may restore the initial long-run output. Copyright 1992 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Galor, Oded & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1992. "Transitory Productivity Shocks and Long-Run Output," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(4), pages 921-933, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:33:y:1992:i:4:p:921-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 112-134.
    3. K. Newey, Whitney, 1985. "Generalized method of moments specification testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 229-256, September.
    4. Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1989. "The nonresponse bias in the analysis of the determinants of total annual expenditures of households based on panel data," Discussion Paper 1989-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-473, March.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 1989. "Anatomy of the Selection Problem," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(3), pages 343-360.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 129-137.
    8. Holly, Alberto, 1982. "A Remark on Hausman's Specification Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 749-759, May.
    9. Mizon, Grayham E, 1977. "Inferential Procedures in Nonlinear Models: An Application in a UK Industrial Cross Section Study of Factor Substitution and Returns to Scale," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1221-1242, July.
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    11. Baltagi, Badi H., 1985. "Pooling cross-sections with unequal time-series lengths," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 133-136.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Bruno, 1993. "Inflation and Growth in an Integrated Approach," NBER Working Papers 4422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Hamada, Koichi, 2001. "Capital Flight, North-South Lending and Stages of Economic Development," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Gomulka, S. & Lane, J., 1997. "Recession dynamics following an external price shock in a transition economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 177-203, June.

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