Turkey

The key-word to best describe the economic outlook for Turkey is uncertainty. Uncertainty was at first induced by the unstable political context of the region, which has diffused into the internal affairs of Turkey. Moreover, this uncertainty was amplified by the political transformations led by the actual president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The economic dynamics of Turkey resented the regional tough environment and the Government’s decisions on foreign affairs. After a 6.1% growth in 2015, the pace of real GDP slowed down to 2.9% in 2016, but according to projections is likely to accelerate easily in 2017 and 2018. The main causes behind the economic slowdown reside in the economic sanctions imposed by Russia, following the diplomatic conflict in 2015, the internal political turmoil, amplified by the failed putsch in July 2016 and the increasing number of terrorist attacks on the Turkish land. As opposed to most of the macroeconomic indicators, the inflation rate and unemployment rate, as main indicators of trust, provide worrisome economic benchmarks. Overall, the economy of Turkey is supposedly affected by increasing domestic pressures and external risks, although there are no other elements of real concern which could prevent the economy to show a more vigorous growth further on.