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Comportamiento cíclico de la política fiscal en Argentina: ¿Década ganada o década perdida?


  • María José Granado

    (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas (Tucumán, Argentina))


Se analiza el gasto del sector público nacional y sus componentes en relación al ciclo económico de Argentina, con series mensuales desde 1993. Se diferencia el análisis cíclico en dos décadas: 1993-2002 y 2003 en adelante, para detectar si hubo una mejora en el comportamiento cíclico de la política fiscal en Argentina, como evidenciaron algunos autores para otros países emergentes. Puede observarse una menor prociclicidad del gasto total a partir de 2003, pero no se detecta un gran avance de Argentina para liberarse de la prociclicidad de la política fiscal. Se destaca el rol del gasto de capital, que puede haber constituido una herramienta anticíclica en la última década. Se advierte un significativo crecimiento del tamaño del Estado, lo que merece una discusión aparte. / This paper analyses the relationship between Argentina's national public expenditure and its business cycle. It uses monthly time series from 1993. In order to capture probable fiscal-policy-cyclical-behavior improvement, as alleged by several other authors towards emerging countries, the two decades of cyclical behavior is contrasted; starting from 1993 to 2002, and from 2003 onwards. It's found less procyclicality on total expenditure since 2003 though Argentina didn't achieve overcoming it. Capital expenditure's role is highlighted, since it could have been taken as a countercyclical tool during the last decade. A significant increase in government size is pointed out. However, the latter deserves a separate discussion.

Suggested Citation

  • María José Granado, 2013. "Comportamiento cíclico de la política fiscal en Argentina: ¿Década ganada o década perdida?," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 51(1), pages 119-156, Diciembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:51:y:2013:i:1:p:119-156
    DOI: 10.55444/2451.7321.2013.v51.n1.11878

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    More about this item


    Política fiscal; ciclo económico; prociclicidad de la política fiscal; Argentina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies


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