IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/wremsd/v3y2007i3-4p251-259.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction markets: an information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem

Author

Listed:
  • Georgios Tziralis
  • Ilias Tatsiopoulos

Abstract

Lately, traditional forecasting methods have been depicted as inferior to newer ones which are attempting to simulate the human decision making process. However, this goal might even be impossible to achieve. This paper introduces an inverse approach to the forecasting problem. The typical process of attempting to subtractively model the expert's knowledge and cognitive function and then perform the forecast is replaced by the dynamic extraction of pure experts' forecasts and the subsequent summing up of the information. The design and benefits of a business game that serves as an information aggregation tool producing valuable predictors is hereby supported.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Tziralis & Ilias Tatsiopoulos, 2007. "Prediction markets: an information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem," World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3/4), pages 251-259.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:wremsd:v:3:y:2007:i:3/4:p:251-259
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=14044
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:wremsd:v:3:y:2007:i:3/4:p:251-259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=173 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.