Validation for intersection conflict models governed by the volumes of conflicting streams in multiplication terms

Some researchers have developed a probabilistic model, a traffic multiplication term, for conflicts at urban uncontrolled intersections. However, such estimates lack theoretical bases and depend only on researchers' professional judgements. Few researchers have empirically observed the behaviour of vehicles traversing intersections before deriving models and previous models merely calculate multiplication terms from traffic volumes approaching intersections. This study utilises the expected value principle to derive quantitative conflict models for evaluating intersection safety. Validation shows that these models can reasonably estimate intersection conflicts even when distributions of conflicting arrivals are ignored. Comparison with other models demonstrates that the proposed models can easily analyse intersection safety without the need for initial calibration of the coefficient of the models. Engineers may simply substitute real-world conflicting traffic volumes into the proposed models to judge intersection safety offline or during the planning process. The findings are helpful for reducing the complexity of the conflict technique.