The dividend enigma: deciphering the effect on Indian ETF performance in stress and normal periods

This study explored the effect of Dividend events on the performance of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in India during both normal and stressful market conditions. While dividend effects on individual equities are well documented, their influence on ETF pricing dynamics - especially in emerging markets - remains underexplored. We utilised standard event study methodology and tested our findings across four event windows to ensure robustness. In addition, we employed both the t-test (parametric) and the Corrado test (non-parametric) statistics to check the significance of abnormal returns. We found that dividend events in normal situations provide profitable opportunities for short-term traders. They could take a long position before the ex-dividend date, as positive cumulative returns are observed before that date. After that date, a short position would be helpful for them in making profits. On the other hand, short-term traders have limited profitable opportunities during market stress; their best option is to earn by tracking market movements.