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A classification model for terror incidents by affiliation category of perpetrators

Author

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  • Donald Douglas Atsa'am
  • Benjamin Terzungwe Tough
  • Barr. Doose Atsa'am

Abstract

A terror incident could be perpetrated by either a lone wolf who acts on their own or affiliated terrorists who work for a terror group. In this study, the data from the global terrorism database and the artificial neural network algorithm were employed to construct a classification model that could predict the probable affiliation category of the perpetrator(s) of a terror incident. The model uses information such as type of attack, casualty figure, claim of responsibility, and damage to property to distinguish a lone wolf attack from a terror group attack. Various metrics of model diagnostics were employed to test the suitability of the model for predictions, and it yielded a balanced classification accuracy of 85%. The model adds another dimension to the existing criteria for terrorism classification. Further, the model could serve as a useful tool in the study of terrorism and counterterrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald Douglas Atsa'am & Benjamin Terzungwe Tough & Barr. Doose Atsa'am, 2026. "A classification model for terror incidents by affiliation category of perpetrators," International Journal of Information and Decision Sciences, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 18(1), pages 60-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijidsc:v:18:y:2026:i:1:p:60-70
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