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Predicting rapid-growth SMEs through a reversal of credit-scoring principles

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  • Gabriele Sampagnaro

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the main variables distinguishing between high-growth firms and non-high-growth firms in the Italian manufacturing market. Specifically, we aim to establish which balance-sheet ratios enable us to distinguish between high-growth and non-high-growth firms. For this purpose, we employed a discriminant analysis on the financial data of two groups of firms selected from a population of approximately 22,000 firms. The results of the analysis indicate the roles of firm size, non-financial debt and internal cash flows in the growth and success of a firm. We adopt an innovative approach that considers financial statements issued the year prior to the observation of accelerated growth as predictive of this growth (as is used by credit-scoring models, i.e., the Z-Score model, to measure the probability of default).

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Sampagnaro, 2013. "Predicting rapid-growth SMEs through a reversal of credit-scoring principles," International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 18(3), pages 313-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijesbu:v:18:y:2013:i:3:p:313-331
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilandžić Ana & Marina Jeger & Šarlija Nataša, 2016. "Dealing with Interpretability Issues in Predicting Firm Growth: Factor Analysis Approach," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 23-34, September.
    2. Šarlija, Nataša & Bilandžić, Ana, 2018. "Does Innovation Matter for SMEs' growth in Croatia?," 6th International OFEL Conference on Governance, Management and Entrepreneurship. New Business Models and Institutional Entrepreneurs: Leading Disruptive Change (Dubrovnik, 2018), in: 6th International OFEL Conference on Governance, Management and Entrepreneurship. New Business Models and Institutional Entrepreneurs: Leading Disrupt, pages 356-375, Governance Research and Development Centre (CIRU), Zagreb.

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