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The impact of trade dispute between China and the USA on value and number of M%A transactions: a quantitative analysis

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  • Vito Bobek
  • Philipp Windischbacher
  • Tatjana Horvat

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the trade dispute between China and the USA, characterised by punitive tariffs, on cross-border M%A transactions. Utilising a quantitative approach based on transaction value and volume, we analyse the influence of punitive tariffs on M%A behaviour. Using data from 'Mergermarket', our conclusive analysis reveals that both countries were affected by the trade dispute. China experienced changes in its M%A behaviour, with significant transaction value and volume decreases from China to the USA following the initial punitive tariffs. Conversely, the USA's M%A behaviour towards China showed a temporary negative shift but remained unchanged after the Phase One agreement, exhibiting an increase in specific M%A activities. Furthermore, investment behaviour shifted regarding deal size distribution, with the USA increasingly pursuing 'Large' deals and China shifting towards smaller M%A transactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vito Bobek & Philipp Windischbacher & Tatjana Horvat, 2026. "The impact of trade dispute between China and the USA on value and number of M%A transactions: a quantitative analysis," International Journal of Diplomacy and Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(4), pages 414-447.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijdipe:v:12:y:2026:i:4:p:414-447
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