IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are inflation expectations in Russia forward-looking?


  • Anna Sokolova


The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of inflation expectations in Russia. The significance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinflation measures introduced by the Central Bank. This paper studies the degree to which inflation expectations appear forward-looking and backward-looking. We estimate the Hybrid Phillips curve that includes proxies for both backward- and forward-looking components of inflation expectations. Applying generalised method of moments we asses, which of the two components play a predominant role in determining Russian inflation. The estimates are based on the monthly macroeconomic statistics for the period 1999-2013. Our analysis suggests that to a large extent inflation expectations in Russia remain backward-looking. Hence, it is recommended to take action to enhance agents confidence in the Central Banks policy before switching to aggressive inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Sokolova, 2014. "Are inflation expectations in Russia forward-looking?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 254-268.
  • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:4:y:2014:i:1/2:p:254-268

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Fantazzini, Dean, 2014. "Editorial for the Special Issue on 'Computational Methods for Russian Economic and Financial Modelling'," MPRA Paper 55430, University Library of Munich, Germany.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:4:y:2014:i:1/2:p:254-268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmel O'Grady) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Carmel O'Grady to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.