How innovation shapes export performance through market and entrepreneurial orientations in a geopolitical era

Amid growing geopolitical tensions, the resilience of export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has become increasingly critical. This study examines how innovation influences SMEs' export performance, focusing on the mediating role of market orientation (MO) and entrepreneurial orientation (EO), and the moderating effect of the US-China trade conflict. Using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) with 500 Korean SMEs, the results show that innovation significantly enhances export performance through MO and EO. However, the US-China trade conflict weakens the positive relationship between innovation and MO, while its moderating effect on the relationship between innovation and EO is not statistically significant. The findings indicate that geopolitical shocks exert asymmetric effects on MO and EO. This study contributes to the understanding of how firms adjust their response strategies under external environmental disruptions and highlights the importance of cultivating strategic ambidexterity to sustain competitiveness in increasingly uncertain global markets.