Determinants of aggregate and sectoral trade between Japan and ASEAN countries: a Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator approach

Our study investigates the determinants of aggregate and sectoral trade between Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The estimation results from the gravity model show that the scale of the economy and market development are the main determinants of aggregate trade between the two regions, in which the effect of Japan's economic size is stronger. Meanwhile, the improvement in logistic performance possibly reduces the disadvantageous impacts of geographical distance on Japan-ASEAN trade flows. By contrast, the formation of trade agreements does not play an important role in Japan-ASEAN trade activities. We find that most determinants of aggregate trade are also factors affecting the trade flows of subsectors between the two sides; however, there are significant differences in the impact magnitudes and the predicted signs. The effects of the considered factors on Japan-ASEAN trade are relatively heterogeneous among the sub-industries. The study also provides implications for enhancing Japan-ASEAN trade in the future.