Identification of Crisis Situations in Financial and Economic Activity of By-Product Coke Plants

The article justifies a necessity of early identification of crisis situations at by-product coke plants. It develops a scheme of interconnection of main components of identification of crisis situations, which consists of three main blocks: formation of the system of identification indicators, classification of financial and economic situations of a company and automatic recognition of the situation class. The following methods of the fuzzy logic were used as instruments of realisation of the above listed blocks: the method of fuzzy clusterisation of c-averages for classification of financial and economic situations and fuzzy neural networks for recognition. The article also offers an integral indicator built upon the matrix of degrees of belonging of situations to clusters, obtained with the help of the method of fuzzy c-averages. The indicator was used in the models of recognition of crisis situations. Moreover, the article offers a two-stage algorithm of recognition of crisis situations, which includes a preliminary synthesis of fuzzy rules on the basis of the method of c-averages with further education of the obtained fuzzy model of the Sugeno type by the genetic algorithm.