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Hybrid dynamic model of forecasting as a tool of study of optimal currency rate in the system of currency regulation

  • Koldovskiy Artem V.

    ()

    (Ukrainian Academy of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine)

The article substantiates expediency and effectiveness of application of forecasting an optimal currency rate, in the basis of which a hybrid dynamical model is laid down. The model is composed through conceptual merger of regression, simplifies algorithmic economic and mathematical models and integrated model of autoregression. However, it is not quite correct to state about unequivocal adherence to forecast values of the currency rate on the basis of the developed model, since not only internal factors can change , but the external environment too. At the same time, availability of properly forecasted and scientifically justified optimal level of the currency rate in Ukraine allows making efficient management decisions on tools of regulation of the currency rate and timeliness of their application. These specific features become topical under conditions of financial instability and cyclic nature of development of economic processes both in the state and at the level of the world economic processes.

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Article provided by RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), Kharkiv National University of Economics in its journal Business Inform.

Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 106_111

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Handle: RePEc:idp:bizinf:y:2013:i:3:p:106_111
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