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On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods


  • Polshkov Yulian M.

    () (Donetsk National University)


The article considers data on the gross domestic product, consumer expenditures, gross investments and volume of foreign trade for the national economy. It is assumed that time is a discrete variable with one year iteration. The article uses finite-difference equations. It considers models with a high degree of the regulatory function of the state with respect to the consumer market. The econometric component is based on the hypothesis that each of the above said macro-economic indicators for this year depends on the gross domestic product for the previous time periods. Such an assumption gives a possibility to engage the least-squares method for building up linear models of the pair regression. The article obtains the time series model, which allows building point and interval forecasts for the gross domestic product for the next year based on the values of the gross domestic product for the current and previous years. The article draws a conclusion that such forecasts could be considered justified at least in the short-term prospect. From the mathematical point of view the built model is a heterogeneous finite-difference equation of the second order with constant ratios. The article describes specific features of such equations. It illustrates graphically the analytical view of solutions of the finite-difference equation. This gives grounds to differentiate national economies as sustainable growth economies, one-sided, weak or being in the stage of successful re-formation. The article conducts comparison of the listed types with specific economies of modern states.

Suggested Citation

  • Polshkov Yulian M., 2013. "On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods," Business Inform, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), Kharkiv National University of Economics, issue 11, pages 95-100.
  • Handle: RePEc:idp:bizinf:y:2013:i:11:p:95_100

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Doukas, John A. & Pantzalis, Christos, 2003. "Geographic diversification and agency costs of debt of multinational firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 59-92, January.
    2. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Mitton, Todd, 2003. "Propping and tunneling," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 732-750, December.
    3. Armo Gomes & Walter Novaes, 2001. "Sharing of Control as a Corporate Governance Mechanism," Penn CARESS Working Papers 3756d78204ca49d92aaf1c17c, Penn Economics Department.
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