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Survey Measures of Inflation Expectation

Author

Listed:
  • Endy Dwi Tjahjono

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Harmanta

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Nur M. Adhi Purwato

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

The research objective was to analyze various survey measures of inflation expectation in Indonesia. We found that the heterogeneity of inflation expectationamong economic agents and professional forecastersfor short forecast horizon is very low. Survey measures of inflation expectation appear to be forward looking, but only for relatively short horizon. Although the magnitude and length vary across measures of inflation expectation, we find that shock to inflation expectation significantly affect the dynamics of the actual inflation rate. Based on the accuracy, the effect on actual inflation and directional information that they have in predicting current and future inflation, inflation expectation from Consensus Forecast outperformed the others.

Suggested Citation

  • Endy Dwi Tjahjono & Harmanta & Nur M. Adhi Purwato, 2012. "Survey Measures of Inflation Expectation," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:14:y:2012:i:4h:p:1-36
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i4.410
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    Cited by:

    1. Ladipo, Patrick K. A. & Agada, Solomon A. & Ighomereho, O. Salome, 2020. "Moderating Factors and Customer Loyalty of Selected Hotels in Lagos State, Nigeria," Journal of Asian Business Strategy, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectation; Vector Auto Regression; balanced score;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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