A Study on the Direction of Trade in the Indian Turmeric Exports: Markov Chain Approach
India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric. Globally, Indian turmeric is considered to be the best because of its high curcumin content. Turmeric ranks third in the total exports of spices from India. The major importing countries of Indian turmeric are the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, United States of America, Sri Lanka, Japan, United Kingdom, Iran, and South Africa. Even though India plays a major role in turmeric export, its export quantity and value varied over the years. In order to retain India's leadership, there is a need to study the export performance due to the increasing domestic demand and a threat from the competing countries. Hence, the present study is undertaken with a view to analyze the export performance of turmeric from India. The export performance is measured in terms of growth rate, instability index and Markov chain analysis. The data on export quantity and export value from 1996-2006 was taken for the purpose of this study. Both exported quantity and value recorded a positive and significant growth of 6.2 and 9.61% per annum respectively. There was high instability in export value when compared to the export quantity, which might be due to the export unit value fluctuation. The results of Markov chain analysis confirmed that UAE and Bangladesh remained as the stable markets for Indian turmeric compared to other markets. The study suggests that appropriate positioning and pricing strategies should be used to strengthen India's position in the unstable global market.
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Volume (Year): V (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
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