Der Arbeitsmarkt in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in den Jahren 1999 und 2000 (The labour market in the Federal Republic of Germany in 1999 and 2000)

"The prospects for Germany's economic development are good at present. Nonetheless there are also uncertainties and downsides. For this reason our labour market forecast for 2000 is based on a range of assumptions for the actual economic growth. The overview includes the basic data of these alternative calculations. Today we consider the middle variant (GDP +2.5%) the most likely to come true. This should bring about a change in the previous employment trend. The gradual, accelerated increase in the number of people in employment is supported by the reduction in annual working time. We reckon with an increase in the employment figure of 0.4% or +160,000 in the annual average. Unlike in the previous year, when employment stagnated over the year and the increase in the annual average had resulted from a statistical surplus alone, the increase in 2000 follows entirely from the dynamics in the course of the year. The stimulation of labour demand is, however, concentrated on the old Länder. The labour market policy measures should level off at a somewhat lower level. They continue to constitute a strong support of the eastern German labour market, though. In eastern and western Germany the tension on the labour market is easing once again on the supply side, since the labour force potential decreases by a total of 0.2 million people. There should be a further decreasing trend in the number unemployed in the course of the year 2000 and it should fall by 225,000 to about 3.88 million in the annual average. A provisional outlook at the year 2001 leads us to expect this trend to continue. A look across the national borders shows that positive impulses for the economy and labour demand should result once again from the improved world economy. A deeper component analysis of the labour force potential underlines the fact that demographic changes on the supply side are easing the tension on the labour market. Finally productivity- and employment-stabilising effects are derived from the increasing move towards flexibility through working time accounts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))