IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hyp/journl/v2y2014i3p45-63.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early Warning Indicators for a Financial Crises. The Case of Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Radu SOVIANI

    (The Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

Abstract

This paper analyses the early signs in the economy that has the ability to predict that a financial crisis is due to happen because of the macroeconomic indicators deterioration and how other economic indicator signals the distress in the state of the economy. We specify the macroeconomic indicators we follow and we identify the symptoms associated with the associated disorder, as it is described by the economic literature as indicators that use to predict some of the internal crisis (currency, banking, balance of payment, all crisis at once). We see the dynamics of this indicators and we compare them with the the dynamics of the best leading indicators for a crisis, that were able to predict a crisis nationally, regionally or globally. We choose 7 early warning indicators that provided in-time valid signals about a crises in Romania, and we define a composite indicator for showing the distress of the economy (as each indicator can give a particular signal of distress, while the composite indicator shows the imminence of the Romanian Financial Crises of 2008-2010).

Suggested Citation

  • Radu SOVIANI, 2014. "Early Warning Indicators for a Financial Crises. The Case of Romania," Hyperion Economic Journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2(3), pages 45-63, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:hyp:journl:v:2:y:2014:i:3:p:45-63
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hej.hyperion.ro/articles/3(2)_2014/HEJ%20nr3(2)_2014_Y2Soviani.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; financial crisis; currency crisis; balance of payment Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hyp:journl:v:2:y:2014:i:3:p:45-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iulian Panait (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fehypro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.