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Los saldos presupuestarios cíclico y estructural de la economía española

  • Francisco Corrales

    (Ministerio de Hacienda)

  • Juan Varela

    (Ministerio de Hacienda)

  • Rafael Domenech

    ()

    (Universidad de Valencia)

En este trabajo se propone un método sencillo de descomposición del saldo presupuestario en su componente cíclico y estructural que trata de ser fácilmente reproducible y poco exigente con el volumen de información necesario para realizar esta descomposición. La regla propuesta se caracteriza porque la respuesta del saldo presupuestario al ciclo económico depende del tamaño del sector público. Los resultados de la descomposición efectuada permiten concluir que la mayor parte de las variaciones en el saldo presupuestario en términos del PIB han sido ocasionadas por cambios discrecionales de la política fiscal, que no han venido guiadas por un objetivo de estabilización, y que el Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento no limita la actuación de los estabilizadores automáticos en una situación de equilibrio presupuestario a largo plazo. Classification-JEL : E32, E60.

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Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.

Volume (Year): 162 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (¨September)
Pages: 9-34

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2002:v:162:i:3:p:9-34
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