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An Indirect-Evolution Approad to Newcomb's Problem

Author

Listed:
  • Max Albert

    (University of Koblenz-Landau, Dept. of Economics, Landau, Germany)

  • Ronald A. Heiner

    (James Buchanan Center for Political Economy, George Mason University, Fairfax/VA, USA)

Abstract

Players from two populations, predictors and predictees, are randomly matched in a game-theoretic version of Newcomb's Problem. Predictors are able to predict the predictees' choices by observing their type. There are two types of predictees, those who take their predictability into account by using the Backtraining Principle when calculating expected utilities, and those who ignore their predictability by using the Disconnection Principle. Backtrackers are one-boxers, the others are two-boxers. Given predictability, evolution favors the Backtracking Principle. An explicit causal analysis proves that this result does not rest on unusual causal assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Albert & Ronald A. Heiner, 2003. "An Indirect-Evolution Approad to Newcomb's Problem," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 20, pages 161-194.
    • Handle: RePEc:hom:homoec:v:20:y:2003:p:161-194
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    Cited by:

    1. Max Albert, 2017. "How Bayesian Rationality Fails and Critical Rationality Works," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 313-341, December.
    2. Heiner, Ronald Asher, 2002. "Robust Evolution Of Contingent Cooperation In Pure One-Shot Prisoners' Dilemmas. Part I: Vulnerable Contingent Participators Versus Stable Contingent Cooperators," CSLE Discussion Paper Series 2002-09, Saarland University, CSLE - Center for the Study of Law and Economics.
    3. Max Albert & Werner Güth & Erich Kirchler & Boris Maciejovsky, 2007. "Are we nice(r) to nice(r) people?—An experimental analysis," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(1), pages 53-69, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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