From the Bottom? Rank Effects on Political Promotion and Electoral Outcomes in South Koreaʼs Local Elections

This article examines rank effects on political promotion and electoral outcomes in South Korea, employing a regression discontinuity design. We focus on the rank in the election for municipal councilor, which is the basic unit of local representatives in South Korea, examining whether a higher rank in the election for municipal councilor positively affects running in and winning the subsequent election for various local positions. First, we found that being a firstplace candidate in the election for municipal councilor negatively affects candidacy and likelihood of winning the subsequent election for municipal councilor. Second, there was little evidence that a higher-ranked candidate in the election for municipal councilor would be likely to run in and win the next election for provincial councilor. Third, we found that a first-ranker is more likely to run in the next election for the executive head, but the effect on winning the election was not evident. We discuss the implications of our findings for the Korean political system.