家事自動化の実現性に対する技術開発者の意識とその国際比較 : AI 技術と家事の自動化に関する日英専門家デルファイ調査より, The Future of AI Technology and Housework : Why Do Japanese Male Experts Predict Less Household Automation than U.K.-based Experts in a Delphi Survey?

日英65 名の専門家を対象に，17 種類の家事労働の自動化の実現可能性とその価格帯についてデルファイ法で調査を行った．平均すると，10 年後には家事労働時間の全体平均で39％が節約されると予測されたが，12 種類の家事・ケアにおいて，日本の男性専門家の見通しは英国の男性専門家よりも有意に低く，特に日本の企業技術者の予測は，他の説明変数をコントロールした後でも有意に低いことがわかった．また，そのような技術の製品価格の予測も，概して日本の方が低かった．日本の専門家の消極性の理由を検討した．日英の生活時間調査の比較から判明した日本男性の家事分担割合の低さや，専門家へのインタビューから，この結果は，日本における製造業の特性のみならず，日本の家庭における性別役割分業の根強さや男性専門家の家事への関心の少なさと関連していると推測した．本稿は，技術開発分野における女性技術者や専門家の数を増やすことの重要性を示唆する．, This paper is based on a Delphi survey of 65 Japanese and U.K. experts on the feasibility and product price range of automating 17 types of domestic work. These experts predicted that on average, 39% of time currently spent on domestic work tasks could be saved through automation in 10 years time. We found that Japanese male experts' forecasts were significantly lower than those of U.K. male experts for 12 out of the 17 domestic tasks. This result holds true in regression analysis where we find that industry research and development male experts in Japan predict significantly lower levels of domestic automation after controlling for other explanatory variables. The average predicted price ranges for these technologies were also generally lower in Japan. Automation of domestic chores is an important technology for aging society like Japan. The paper examines the reasons for Japanese male experts’ reluctance. Based on Time Use survey of both countries and interviews, we speculate that the results are related not only to the technological characteristics of the research and development in the field of smart technologies in contemporary Japan but also to the persistent gendered division of labor in Japanese households and perhaps the lack of interest in and experience with domestic work among Japanese male experts. Our paper suggests the importance of increasing the number of female engineers and experts in the field of technology development.