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Determinants of Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis of the Transition Literature

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  • Iwasaki, Ichiro
  • Kumo, Kazuhiro

Abstract

The economies of Central East European and former Soviet states have experienced catastrophic downturns in the first years of transition to the market economy and moderate recovery in the aftermath of the crisis. Previous studies, however, do not clarify the reasons why the transition economies followed a J-shaped path of macroeconomic decline and growth without exception. Aiming to illustrate the mechanism, we conducted a meta-analysis of the transition literature that empirically examined the determinants of macroeconomic growth in transition economies. The results of meta-synthesis of collected estimates indicate that hyperinflation and regional conflicts were strong factors causing the economic crisis during the initial period of transition, while the changes in socio-economic structure and the transformation policies had weaker effects on economic growth. We also found that the economies with heavier socialist legacies were forced to face deeper economic decline, if other conditions are equal.

Suggested Citation

  • Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kumo, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Determinants of Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis of the Transition Literature," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 67(4), pages 326-338, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:ecorev:v:67:y:2016:i:4:p:326-338
    DOI: 10.15057/28205
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    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Iwasaki & Kazuhiro Kumo, 2019. "J-Curve in Transition Economies: A Large Meta-analysis of the Determinants of Output Changes," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 149-191, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

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