Modeling the Variation in the Trajectory of Crosswalk Overflow Violation Pedestrians in China and Countermeasure

The phenomenon that pedestrians walk outside the crosswalk during green and flashing green is defined as overflow violation, and it is an illegal but common phenomenon in China. Few safety countermeasures can be applied to restrict it. At signalized intersections, one safety issue is the conflicts between turning vehicles and pedestrians. Large variations in overflow pedestrian trajectories lead to widely distributed conflict points. This paper puts forward a model to estimate spatial variations of overflow pedestrian trajectories. By video tracking, only trajectories of overflow violation pedestrians are collected. After analysis, crosswalk geometry, destination, previous passing position, and densities are determined as significant factors of trajectories variations. To simplify modeling process of trajectories variations, this paper assumes that individual trajectory is roughly represented by three feature points on the trajectory. Three feature points are defined as three crossing positions at three cross-sections. Furthermore, Weibull distribution is applied to estimate the spatial distribution of violation pedestrian crossing positions at three cross-sections; then, the spatial distributions of overflow violation pedestrians’ trajectories are gained by connecting crossing positions at three cross-sections. Finally, the validation result suggests that the established models are capable of explaining well the spatial maneuver of overflow violation pedestrians’ trajectories variations.