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A Stochastic Model for the HIV/AIDS Dynamic Evolution

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Di Biase
  • Guglielmo D'Amico
  • Arturo Di Girolamo
  • Jacques Janssen
  • Stefano Iacobelli
  • Nicola Tinari
  • Raimondo Manca

Abstract

This paper analyses the HIV/AIDS dynamic evolution as defined by CD4 levels, from a macroscopic point of view, by means of homogeneous semi-Markov stochastic processes. A large number of results have been obtained including the following conditional probabilities: an infected patient will be in state j after a time t given that she/he entered at time 0 (starting time) in state i ; that she/he will survive up to a time t , given the starting state; that she/he will continue to remain in the starting state up to time t ; that she/he reach stage j of the disease in the next transition, if the previous state was i and no state change occurred up to time t . The immunological states considered are based on CD4 counts and our data refer to patients selected from a series of 766 HIV-positive intravenous drug users.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Di Biase & Guglielmo D'Amico & Arturo Di Girolamo & Jacques Janssen & Stefano Iacobelli & Nicola Tinari & Raimondo Manca, 2007. "A Stochastic Model for the HIV/AIDS Dynamic Evolution," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2007, pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:065636
    DOI: 10.1155/2007/65636
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