When Superpowers Clash and Oil Markets Tremble: Implications for Global Clean Energy Market Performance

This study extends asymmetric analysis by introducing an asymmetric wavelet quantile regression (AWQR) framework to examine how positive and negative changes in US–China tensions (UCTs) and oil prices (OPs) affect the global clean energy transition (GCET). Using monthly data from 01/03/2007, to 01/02/2024, the framework captures distributional heterogeneity, frequency heterogeneity, and sign asymmetry. The findings show that symmetric and asymmetric specifications provide distinct insights. Under the symmetric model, UCT has little immediate effect on GCET, but its influence becomes stronger over the medium and long terms, with negative effects at upper long-term quantiles. Positive UCT shocks generally weaken GCET at middle medium-term quantiles but support it at upper long-term quantiles, whereas negative shocks improve GCET at selected medium-term quantiles but reduce it across middle and upper long-term quantiles. OPs generally promote GCET, especially in the medium term. Positive OP shocks strengthen GCET mainly at middle and upper quantiles, while negative OP shocks support GCET in the medium term but weaken it at upper long-term quantiles. The study proposes policy recommendations based on these findings.