A Water Management Model for Toshka Depression

Toshka Depression (TD), located about 250 km south west of the High Aswan Dam (HAD), consists of four deep-cut basins connected by natural sills. It is required to assess the contribution of TD as a spillway, in enhancing the effectiveness of Lake Nasser in flood control and water availability. However, most related previous works are descriptive and use qualitative methods. In order to provide the required assessment quantitatively, we developed a numerical model which computes TD mass balance and interbasin water movements. The model computes the variation of water volume, surface area, and water level in each one of the four basins (subdepressions), thus depicting their filling sequence, for the past 130 years. This TD response to realistic time series of water inflow gains and evaporation losses is analyzed to compute the TD overflow time series. This response helps assess water availability for agricultural use and effectiveness in alleviating flood risks. Furthermore, the developed model compares between three TD configurations to help the decision maker and recommends (i) building a dam—height 10 m—at the end of the fourth subdepression near Kharga Oasis and/or (ii) incorporating the third subdepression into TD by digging a canal through the hill that blocks it from the first subdepression.