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Temperature-Driven Dynamics of Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

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  • Berhe Nerea Kahsay
  • Oluwole Daniel Makinde

Abstract

PurposeTomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV), transmitted by whiteflies, is a highly destructive pathogen that threatens tomato production worldwide. Temperature plays a crucial role in determining how tomato plants respond to TYLCV infection, primarily because it influences the activity and population dynamics of insect vectors. This study is aimed at exploring how variations in temperature affect the transmission dynamics of TYLCV among tomato plants.MethodsWe formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the spread of TYLCV that incorporates temperature-dependent variation in virus inoculation and acquisition rates. We compute and examine the basic reproduction numbers without temperature variation (R01) and with temperature variation (R02). In addition, numerical simulations are performed to investigate the impact of temperature on the disease dynamics.ResultsWe show that warmer climates or rising seasonal temperature exacerbate outbreak severity and persistence. Besides, we find that if R02

Suggested Citation

  • Berhe Nerea Kahsay & Oluwole Daniel Makinde, 2026. "Temperature-Driven Dynamics of Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus: A Mathematical Modeling Approach," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2026, pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnljam:3408574
    DOI: 10.1155/jama/3408574
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