Evaluating Pre- and Post-Exposure Vaccination for Rabies Control in Dog Populations Using Mathematical Modeling

Understanding the transmission dynamics of rabies among dogs is crucial for designing effective control strategies in endemic regions. In this study, we developed and analyzed two deterministic compartmental models. The SEI model captures the natural progression of rabies in the absence of intervention, while the SEIV model incorporates vaccination through pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for susceptible dogs and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for exposed dogs. Analytical derivation of the basic reproduction number and stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibria (EE) were performed. Numerical simulations demonstrated that vaccination substantially reduces infection levels, with PrEP emerging as the dominant factor in controlling transmission. Vaccination thresholds indicate that coverage above 56% for combined PrEP and PEP at equal rates, or above 62% coverage of PrEP together with 30% or more coverage of PEP, or PrEP alone exceeding 70%, is sufficient to eliminate rabies in the dog population of Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Extending the SEIV model into an optimal control framework further revealed that time-dependent PrEP strategies effectively minimize infection, whereas PEP alone with feasible coverage is insufficient to eradicate the disease. Moreover, the cost-effectiveness analysis reveals that the only PrEP implementation is the most cost-effective strategy for vaccination-dependent (PrEP and PEP) suppression of dog rabies transmission. These findings highlight the critical role of vaccination, particularly PrEP, in achieving rabies elimination and support national and global efforts to end dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030.