An Optimal Control Study for a Two-Strain SEIR Epidemic Model With Saturated Incidence Rates and Treatment

This work will study an optimal control problem describing the two-strain SEIR epidemic model. The model studied is in the form of six nonlinear differential equations illustrating the dynamics of the susceptible and the exposed, the infected, and the recovered individuals. The exposed and the infected compartments are each divided into two subclasses representing the first and the second strains. The model includes two saturated rates and two treatments for each strain. We begin our study by showing the well posedness of our problem. The basic reproduction number is calculated and depends mainly on the reproduction numbers of the first and second strains. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is fulfilled. The optimal control study is achieved by using the Pontryagin minimum principle. Numerical simulations have shown the importance of therapy in minimizing the infection’s effect. By administrating suitable therapies, the disease’s severity decreases considerably. The estimation of parameters as well as a comparison study with COVID-19 clinical data is fulfilled. It was shown that the mathematical model results fit well the clinical data. In order to eradicate the infection, it is very important that the first and second strain reproduction numbers must be less than unity.