Product Diversification, R&D Investment, and Enterprise Resilience: An Empirical Study Based on US–China Trade Confrontation

The current study elucidates the influence of product diversification strategies and technological R&D investments on the resilience of Chinese high-tech listed companies in the context of US trade sanctions. Our findings reveal an inverse U-shaped relationship between enterprise product diversification and resilience. R&D investment positively affects resilience but with diminishing returns. Notably, R&D investments amplify the inverted U-shaped effect of product diversification on firm resilience, particularly when product diversification falls within the “double threshold.†Furthermore, non-state-owned holding enterprises exhibit a more pronounced impact of product diversification on resilience compared to state-owned counterparts. Our research not only examines the impact of these strategies on enterprise resilience but also clarifies how different strategic choices influence the response and consequences of enterprises facing systemic risks. We shed light on the varying impacts of external systemic risks on businesses. These insights provide valuable guidance for enterprises aiming to bolster their resilience and sustain steady development under the influence of trade complexity. Methodologically, this study integrates a discrete-time dynamic resilience framework with event-study and panel-regression approaches, modeling how firms transition across resilience states—resistance, recovery, and adaptation—in response to sequential sanction shocks. This discrete-dynamics perspective contributes a novel bridge between dynamic systems theory and empirical corporate strategy research.