Dynamical Modeling and Analysis of Worm Propagation in Networks

It is very important to study the model of worm propagation and analyze its dynamic evolution for understanding and mitigating network security threats. In this paper, considering network heterogeneity and two ways of worm propagation: scanning IP addresses and network-sharing propagation, we develop a new model to study the dynamics of worm propagation. Based on the proposed model, we conduct the theoretical analysis and prove that if the basic reproduction number is less than 1, the worm-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Then, the final size is given, and data fitting is carried out by using the actual monitoring data. Finally, we examine the effect of model parameters on the basic reproduction number and analyze the changes of infected nodes in different cases. Numerical experiments show the rationality of the established model. The results indicate that, among the two ways of worm propagation, the network-sharing propagation facilitates more rapid dissemination of the worm.