Assessment of the Importance of Nodes in the Global Soybean Supply Chain Network Under Unexpected Risks

As a globally critical agricultural commodity, soybean imports and exports exert far-reaching impacts on the global economy, industrial development, and social welfare. Currently, the global soybean trade landscape is fraught with uncertainties. From the perspective of the global soybean supply chain network (encompassing imports, exports, and industrial chain inputs–outputs), this study constructs a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model for the importance of nodal countries based on complex network theory, with empirical analyses conducted using global soybean trade data from 2016 to 2023. To ensure causal inference validity, endogeneity is addressed via the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method with instrumental variables, and robustness checks are conducted. The results indicate that, from the export side, Brazil holds a core position in the soybean trade network; the United States is proximal to the network’s center and functions as a robust neighboring nodal country; Argentina serves as an export trade hub, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Canada boast substantial soybean export volumes but maintain relatively fixed trade relationships. From the import side, China occupies a dominant central position; Argentina acts as an import trade hub, while Mexico, the Netherlands, and Germany play prominent roles in global soybean imports. The soybean trade flow efficiency and marketization level in the Americas and Europe outperform those in the Asia-Pacific and Africa, with global soybean trade exhibiting distinct regionalization features. Finally, this study puts forward targeted recommendations to optimize China’s soybean import strategy.