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Understanding Measles Contagion: A Fractional-Order Model With Stability and Sensitivity Insights

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  • Mahmoud H. DarAssi
  • Mamoon Ahmed
  • Yousef AbuHour

Abstract

In this paper, we propose an epidemiological mathematical model described by a system of nonlinear differential equations of fractional order (FODEs). Specifically, we employ the Caputo fractional derivative (CFD). Our analysis verifies the existence of a solution. Furthermore, we investigate the model’s global stability by analyzing the stability of the equilibrium points. Additionally, we calculate the basic reproduction number R0 to assess the potential for measles transmission. In the numerical section, we perform a sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number, examining how changes in model parameters impact disease dynamics. Moreover, we employ a decision tree approach to investigate the impact of variations in ε and R0 on disease outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmoud H. DarAssi & Mamoon Ahmed & Yousef AbuHour, 2026. "Understanding Measles Contagion: A Fractional-Order Model With Stability and Sensitivity Insights," Journal of Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2026, pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jjmath:5704852
    DOI: 10.1155/jom/5704852
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