Pathways to Climate Action: A Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

As low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) simultaneously pursue development and address climate commitments under the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the critical sustainability challenge of greenhouse gas emissions persists. The complex, context-dependent interactions among economic, demographic, and energy determinants of greenhouse gas emissions cannot be fully captured by traditional econometric approaches. Motivated by the need to address these, this study identifies configurational pathways that lead to high greenhouse gas emissions across 110 LMICs from 2000 to 2023, employing fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. The study analyses seven key conditions: GDP per capita, financial development, trade openness, industrialization, renewable energy consumption, urbanization, and population growth. While the necessity analysis shows that no single condition is individually necessary for high emissions, 10 distinct equifinal pathways are identified by the sufficiency analysis. The strongest explanatory power (consistency: 0.96, raw coverage: 0.46) is demonstrated by Path 1, which is characterized by high GDP, urbanization, and industrialization, and low renewable energy and population growth. Additional configurations reveal diverse combinations which involve financial development, trade, and demographic factors. The explanatory power of the overall solution is substantial, as 78% coverage and 83% consistency are achieved. These findings, which provide actionable insights for SDGs 7, 9, 11, 12, and 13, underscore the importance of differentiated, context-sensitive climate interventions rather than universal policies.