The Stability–Asymmetry Paradox in International Trade: A Fuzzy Logic Categorization of Partnerships

The 21st century has witnessed political upheavals, economic shocks, and inflation, all of which have disrupted global trade. In response, nations are increasingly aligning with blocs such as the SCO, BRICS, INSTC, and IMEEC to strengthen their resilience. This study asks How can countries identify reliable trade partners with stable openness? Are stable trade partners (STPs) always symmetric? Drawing on Trade Interdependence Theory, Exit Cost Models, and fuzzy logic, the study introduces the STP index—constructed from deviations in macroeconomic stability, political stability, and trade openness volatility. A lower STP score signals higher stability. We compute STPs for 122 countries from 2000 to 2023, using two specifications: one including and one excluding two major recession periods (the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and the COVID-19 crisis of 2020–2021), with inflation serving as a proxy for macroeconomic volatility. Additionally, we examine STPs using 5-year windows from 2019 to 2023 and employ net barter terms of trade as an alternative volatility proxy. Crucially, the analysis reveals a paradox that STPs are not necessarily symmetric, addressing a gap in the trade literature and offering guidance for policymakers navigating global uncertainty.